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  #28301  
Old 07-29-2017, 11:30 PM
Kakwakas Kakwakas is offline

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Originally Posted by Mutterscrawl View Post
It's horrific to consider but is it possible to hit NK so hard in the initial strikes that it... can't really attack SK or Japan?

That'd mean jumping to massive bombing or nuclear strike right away though... and that plays into the evacuation problem you mentioned.
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  #28302  
Old 07-29-2017, 11:37 PM
Mutterscrawl Mutterscrawl is offline

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Goddamnit.
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  #28303  
Old 07-30-2017, 12:08 AM
PajamaSalad PajamaSalad is offline

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I have a lot of friends stationed in Korea and the general Pacific region. It isn't just the Japanese and South Koreans that are in danger. Attacking the US first would mean annihilation for North Korea. I wouldn't bet on Un being rational though. The US has put a lot of investment into the missile shield with partial success but less effective at missiles that go through space.

A preemptive strike would probably get China involved and the North Korean military isn't defenseless. It would be the costliest war in several decades. I don't think their attempts to rein in North Korea are sincere. They are playing the long game because unlike the US they have continuity in their leadership who better makes long term plans. Communist China is a slow authoritarian creep.

I am pretty comfortable with General Mattis as SecDef. He knows what he is doing. What ever happens we are in good hands.
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  #28304  
Old 07-30-2017, 12:15 AM
HlaaluStyle HlaaluStyle is offline

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Originally Posted by PajamaSalad View Post
I have a lot of friends stationed in Korea and the general Pacific region. It isn't just the Japanese and South Koreans that are in danger. Attacking the US first would mean annihilation for North Korea. I wouldn't bet on Un being rational though. The US has put a lot of investment into the missile shield with partial success but less effective at missiles that go through space.

A preemptive strike would probably get China involved and the North Korean military isn't defenseless. It would be the costliest war in several decades. I don't think their attempts to rein in North Korea are sincere. They are playing the long game because unlike the US they have continuity in their leadership who better makes long term plans. Communist China is a slow authoritarian creep.

I am pretty comfortable with General Mattis as SecDef. He knows what he is doing. What ever happens we are in good hands.
Yeah. China might well get involved if there's a preemptive strike, so it's probably a bad idea. But on that case it sounds like we have no choice but to sit and wait. And if Un's crazy, he might strike for no good reason. If he does have the ability to reach the US, he's already holding us hostage.

I have mixed feelings about the current administration, but I am glad Mattis is there. I trust him, and so does everyone else I know.
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  #28305  
Old 07-30-2017, 02:30 PM
C9H20 C9H20 is offline

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I'm of the opinion that it's never a good idea to go to war for humanitarian purposes, and (more to the point) it's never really done. There's always a practical reason for going into conflict, even if it's downplayed in the public. Whether or not that reason is practical in outcome and execution is an entirely separate matter.
I agree 100%. I am technically pro-intervention but no country on the globe is altruistic enough and capable of doing this, there is always an ulterior motive. Plus even if one came in with the best of intentions wars are rarely clear wars of aggression with side A and side B where you can swoop in and stop it. Sometimes some citizens of side A support B and vice versa. And lets not even get into the hell that would be trying to impartially moderate a civil war. That is why I believe that relations between countries should be strictly altruistic in nature to avoid these "screwing you over for your own good" situations. 'Course that is probably never gonna happen but ideals are called such for a reason I suppose.

PS. Funny childhood story time. When I was a kid I didn't understand the concept of civil war well, I understood it was a war within a single country but I thought that it was some kind of Mad Max situation where suddenly everyone was out for themselves and taking potshots at their neighbours from the attic window. Kids, eh? The mind of a child is so innocent
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  #28306  
Old 08-01-2017, 06:06 PM
PajamaSalad PajamaSalad is offline

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There are risks in intervention just as much as there are risks in inaction and just because you don't intervene doesn't mean other people will choose not to intervene. You just end up with other people shaping the world instead of yourself.

All honest people have biases. It isn't necessarily a bad thing. You can have conflict between two forces that believe they are doing the right thing and in fact that is usually the case. With might as the deciding factor I think might should serve right. Things like equality before the law and democracy are worth fighting for. I even think capitalism is worth fighting for. I like the current world order more than I would if something like Nazi Germany, Soviet Communism, or Chinese communism ruled the world. I don't think the current world order is a natural thing that came easily.

Any conflict will have multiple parties. Some will be happy about intervention while others will not be. A lot of people will be operating off of a limited perspective too and have varying intensities about how they will feel about something. Generational changes can change how people view something as the long term consequences start to pan out.
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  #28307  
Old 08-02-2017, 03:38 AM
Aneurysm Aneurysm is offline

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I like the current world order more than I would if something like Nazi Germany, Soviet Communism, or Chinese communism ruled the world.
Who you are now, shaped by the world we live in, wouldn't like it.

Alternate timeline-PJ growing up in a Man in the High Castle-America maybe would've loved it, who knows?
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  #28308  
Old 08-02-2017, 05:54 AM
Gromak Gromak is offline

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Who you are now, shaped by the world we live in, wouldn't like it.

Alternate timeline-PJ growing up in a Man in the High Castle-America maybe would've loved it, who knows?
I wonder what my life would be in Man in the High Castle Germany. I'd imagine pretty solid, as I'm tall, blonde, have blue-eyes and am pureblooded German for at least the last 5 Generations of my family.

It's sad that my genetic perfection is not as relevant in this timeline.
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  #28309  
Old 08-02-2017, 07:26 AM
PajamaSalad PajamaSalad is offline

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Who you are now, shaped by the world we live in, wouldn't like it.

Alternate timeline-PJ growing up in a Man in the High Castle-America maybe would've loved it, who knows?
It would have been several decades after Man in the High Castle. There wouldn't be as many people that lived before the war and a lot of the policies would have been taken to their conclusion. The Japanese would probably have their empire crumble and Germany would be the sole super power. Germany could have even potentially mellowed out.

MitHC is in the 1960s and I would have grown up in the 1990s.
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  #28310  
Old 08-02-2017, 07:38 AM
Aneurysm Aneurysm is offline

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Originally Posted by PajamaSalad View Post
It would have been several decades after Man in the High Castle. There wouldn't be as many people that lived before the war and a lot of the policies would have been taken to their conclusion. The Japanese would probably have their empire crumble and Germany would be the sole super power. Germany could have even potentially mellowed out.

MitHC is in the 1960s and I would have grown up in the 1990s.
There was also meditation-based magic teleportation and universe-jumping, so don't take my use of the Man in the High Castle that literal.

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It's sad that my genetic perfection is not as relevant in this timeline.
Let's make Europa great again.
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  #28311  
Old 08-02-2017, 07:56 AM
PajamaSalad PajamaSalad is offline

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There was also meditation-based magic teleportation and universe-jumping, so don't take my use of the Man in the High Castle that literal.
But the Japanese do have magical powers. They can shoot dragons out of their hands.
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  #28312  
Old 08-03-2017, 06:44 PM
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I wonder what my life would be in Man in the High Castle Germany. I'd imagine pretty solid, as I'm tall, blonde, have blue-eyes and am pureblooded German for at least the last 5 Generations of my family.

It's sad that my genetic perfection is not as relevant in this timeline.
Wait, which timeline is this, anyways? It's not the darkest timeline, I'm pretty sure.

I don't have German roots, but I'm pale and blue-eyed, so I could pass for an Aryan fellow.
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  #28313  
Old 08-03-2017, 07:03 PM
PajamaSalad PajamaSalad is offline

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Wait, which timeline is this, anyways? It's not the darkest timeline, I'm pretty sure.

I don't have German roots, but I'm pale and blue-eyed, so I could pass for an Aryan fellow.
It isn't like genocide of the non-Aryan races is a trivial matter. The Jews and anyone that had any sort of disability would also be exterminated. If you resisted you would be tortured and preventing genocide is a heck of a good reason to resist.
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  #28314  
Old 08-04-2017, 12:10 AM
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Wait, which timeline is this, anyways? It's not the darkest timeline, I'm pretty sure.

I don't have German roots, but I'm pale and blue-eyed, so I could pass for an Aryan fellow.
I believe that this is considered to be the "weirdest" or "drunkest" timeline.
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  #28315  
Old 08-04-2017, 08:13 PM
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I believe that this is considered to be the "weirdest" or "drunkest" timeline.
Well, I would challenge anyone to prove that any other timeline has produced alcohol as ours have. So far as we know, every other timeline that exists discovered alcohol and immediately decided it was no good, such that we are, in fact, the drunkest of timelines.
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  #28316  
Old 08-05-2017, 05:40 PM
Taintedmage Taintedmage is offline

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Neat. Unanimous vote in the UN security council to ban key North Korea exports by a third due to its missile test.

Considering Russia and China are on the Security Council you would expect at least China to veto that.
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  #28317  
Old 08-05-2017, 07:27 PM
Mutterscrawl Mutterscrawl is offline

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Neat. Unanimous vote in the UN security council to ban key North Korea exports by a third due to its missile test.

Considering Russia and China are on the Security Council you would expect at least China to veto that.
North Korea is rocking the boat too much for China's liking I think, they may have finally decided to cut it loose.
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  #28318  
Old 08-06-2017, 06:27 PM
PajamaSalad PajamaSalad is offline

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North Korea is rocking the boat too much for China's liking I think, they may have finally decided to cut it loose.
I wish China would do something about North Korea but I don't think they see it in their best interests. They can present otherwise but the communist government knows they can play the long game as western democratic societies see leaders come and go and along with them strategies and doctrines. China doesn't want US troops on their border but a belligerent North Korea still gives them an ally and can act in overt ways that China can't without interrupting its trade. China is dependent on trade from nations that are against its governing style. Most of us would be glad to see its government reform into a western democracy and they know that.
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  #28319  
Old 08-07-2017, 06:39 AM
C9H20 C9H20 is offline

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Neat. Unanimous vote in the UN security council to ban key North Korea exports by a third due to its missile test.

Considering Russia and China are on the Security Council you would expect at least China to veto that.
I'd actually sooner expect Russia to veto it out of spite for those very harsh new sanctions. But I guess they don't want to veto if everyone else is for lest they be accused of vetoing everything, which the West already accuses them of.

Still these new sanctions and the sidelining of Trump have signaled to many respected newspapers that the Cold War is really and truly back. Though I personally believe the CW never ended in the first place. Whatever side you may fall on it sure does look like it will last for a long while. Being boycotted by the West (though a EU-US disagreement on this is possible) will hurt Russia quite a bit but it doesn't seem capable of bringing it down since Russia can still trade with Asia, Africa and S. America as well as pushing even harder for autarky (it is a really big place after all). Meanwhile Europe will suffer some economic hardship as well due to the sanctions leaving America as the only real winner here. Most of all I pity the loss of economic and scientific cooperation on the East-West axis which will slow down the development of all of mankind. : /
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Old 08-08-2017, 04:07 PM
HlaaluStyle HlaaluStyle is offline

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I'm hearing that North Korea is now threatening to launch a missile near Guam.

It's starting to look pretty ugly. China's going to be the big wildcard in this. The question is whether or not they decide to intervene on NK's side. I think they will for sure if we strike first, but are less likely to if NK strikes first. Though if NK strikes, there's still a risk that China will declare war on the US due to miscalculation or escalation.

Looks like the Cuban Missile Crisis. I'm glad Mattis is there, since I sure don't trust many others in the administration.
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Old 08-08-2017, 04:37 PM
Gromak Gromak is offline

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Wait, has North Korea gone up in the world from laughinsg-stock to "might actually pose a threat"?
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  #28322  
Old 08-08-2017, 04:56 PM
HlaaluStyle HlaaluStyle is offline

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Wait, has North Korea gone up in the world from laughinsg-stock to "might actually pose a threat"?
It's been a threat to SK and Japan for a long time.

I don't think the US will do a first strike, since that would greatly increase the risk of bringing in China. Trump may not understand this, but there are enough people in the DoD who do.

We'll see how Trump responds to this news (which could be a bluff), and then how Kim responds to Trump's response. Maybe it'll fizzle out, but things are pretty tense.
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  #28323  
Old 08-08-2017, 05:20 PM
PajamaSalad PajamaSalad is offline

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Technology that hurts has outpaced technology that defends. It would be a lot easier for North Korea to cause damage than it would be to stop them. That is what makes rogue nations like NK and small terrorist groups threatening.
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Old 08-10-2017, 07:39 PM
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I'm hearing that North Korea is now threatening to launch a missile near Guam.

It's starting to look pretty ugly. China's going to be the big wildcard in this. The question is whether or not they decide to intervene on NK's side. I think they will for sure if we strike first, but are less likely to if NK strikes first. Though if NK strikes, there's still a risk that China will declare war on the US due to miscalculation or escalation.

Looks like the Cuban Missile Crisis. I'm glad Mattis is there, since I sure don't trust many others in the administration.
Now I won't pretend to be any kind of expert on the subject, but you'd think you could trust China to act in what it perceives to be its best interest, given that it still behaves as a rational entity. The question I'd have is how much does North Korea have to actually do before it would consider siding with the US or standing aside in the event the US strikes NK somehow.

Presumably, if NK were to actually hit Guam, China would almost certainly have to acquiesce the US hitting back. But then, the US would also most likely have to hit back harder. How much damage can the US inflict before China decides it has to step in? Or could NK's actions force China to just write the whole thing off?

Honestly, I'm really just hoping I can manage to live my whole life without seeing WW3.
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Old 08-10-2017, 08:01 PM
HlaaluStyle HlaaluStyle is offline

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Now I won't pretend to be any kind of expert on the subject, but you'd think you could trust China to act in what it perceives to be its best interest, given that it still behaves as a rational entity. The question I'd have is how much does North Korea have to actually do before it would consider siding with the US or standing aside in the event the US strikes NK somehow.

Presumably, if NK were to actually hit Guam, China would almost certainly have to acquiesce the US hitting back. But then, the US would also most likely have to hit back harder. How much damage can the US inflict before China decides it has to step in? Or could NK's actions force China to just write the whole thing off?

Honestly, I'm really just hoping I can manage to live my whole life without seeing WW3.
I doubt China will jump straight to a nuclear salvo. They don't want to initiate armageddon for NK's sake. But in a conflict situation, there will be many chances of miscommunication, and that could escalate.
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